Even though, I think that bugging in is best, sometimes, you will need to decide if you will bug out or not.
The purpose of bugging out is to get out of the way of a threat or great danger that will become a real problem if you stay where you are at.
Both natural disasters and social disasters can create the need to get the heck out of town. If you don’t know ahead of time what you will do with each one, you may wait until it is too late to make the decision to leave.
Natural Disasters Happen, Be Ready for Them
Natural Disasters are proven to occur, many times without warning. You may be required to bug out in many different natural disasters.
You may need to get out of your home and go to a hotel during a fire. If the fire is widespread, you may need to escape town.
Tornado or Hurricane
These will require the ability to bug out of the immediate area, possibly a couple hours away. Tornados may require bunkering in place, then bugging out.
You may need to move away from the plume or any possible damage.
If you can get out of dodge when this occurs, you may need to go 6 or more hours away.
Just like with a fire, you could be seeking alternative shelters locally or regionally based on the size of flooding.
Social Creatures create Social Disasters, React Quickly
Because we are constantly designing and testing new things, people create their own disasters. Because we are social creatures, we get caught up in “mob mentality.”
Mob Mentality: The propensity of someone that doesn’t know what to do to emulate those around them.
Mob Mentality, our creativity, our social structures, and our own greed are the causes of a large number of disasters.
Fukushima Nuclear Disasters
You will have to escape the circle of influence of any radiation that leaks. If the winds require it, you may need to escape further.
If this happens, all heck will possibly break loose. Based on your situation, you may need to leave to keep your family out of harms way.
This usually happens due to political or economic stimulants, but could occur due to a pandemic. If things start getting hairy, you may need to leave. If that happens, you will quickly wish you had made the decision sooner.
If you don’t choose quickly, you may suffer extremely!
It is extremely important to decide early when to leave and when to stay. You must be resolute in your decision as well.
If you don’t know what to do before hand, you won’t decide quickly enough. If you don’t decide quickly, you will probably pay the consequences.
The problem could catch up to you.
You could get stuck in traffic.
You could fail to get the necessary gear.
Should I stay or should I go?
Bugging in is the best option, but bugging out has it’s place. You need to think ahead of time about what you will do so you can quickly make the decisions to stay or leave. Once you have made the decision, hurry, and take action.
Should You Bug In, or Bug Out? You have learned from the best… You have a well-stocked bug out bag. You have a keen eye and can pay attention to everything in your surroundings. You listen to all the local radio streams and know everything that is going on around you. You can get out […]
“Plan to be a disaster survivor with or without government help. Planning is not hard. It just takes focus and a little effort.” – Doug Hoell Housekeeping: If you don’t know where to start in prepping, check out my resource page at theprepperpodcast.com/gettingstarted, this is where I am getting the outline of my discussions here! […]
What is Peak Oil? Myth or Theory? Oil Dependency: Largest Natural & Human Disasters P7
Today, I will answer the question of, “What is peak oil?” My goal is to look at the peak oil theory to explain why it is not a peak oil myth. Hopefully by the end of it, we will have tied it into our oil dependency in the country. This is part 7 of Largest Natural & Human Disasters and it looks as though this series is nearly completed. I do have one coming us soon that EVERYONE will enjoy.
Peak oil is a relatively simple concept that has actually been over-complicated and demonized with all of the graphs and charts, talking heads, and “experts” out there. I really don’t know when people will stop listening to some of them.
Peak oil can be looked at two ways: supply and demand, and the quantity stored. We can look at it in reference to the quantity we can provide at a time, or flow, or we can look at it in terms of having a big holding tank or reservoir.
With looking at flow for our definition, we say that we can only supply a certain amount. When we find new reservoirs, we can tap into them and provide more flow of oil. Supply goes up. As supply goes up, demand will go up to match it. Demand will go up easier than down. As demand continues to climb, or as a few reservoirs start to become depleted, our production capability lowers, so price goes up.
Now consider the reservoir. We tap the reservoir and start extracting the oil. Once we have extracted and used half of the reservoir, that one reservoir is in peak both in sheer quantity, and in the flow it can produce.
This being said, we can look at the fact that oil is a non-renewable resource and say that the theory of peak oil is a fact, not a myth. Every reservoir has experienced or will experience peak oil.
What is Peak Oil? Myth or Theory? Oil Dependency: Largest Natural & Human Disasters P7: Bell Curve
Supply of oil is like a bell curve, or for you math types it is a parabolic function with hyperbolic depletion. What happens is that oil was discovered for use, and supply slowly begins. As time goes on, it quickly starts to climb up and subsequently level off. Where it levels off is the peak of the bell-curve. Then supply will be slowly reduced, and then have a very rapid reduction, until it very slowly tapers off at the end.
The peak of that bell curve is peak oil. Everyone says that this is a catastrophic time, but I disagree. The peak-oil crisis that most people speak of is not at the peak of the bell curve but slightly to the right of the peak, when supply has already started going down and is about to his a swift decent. Why will it be at this time? This is a point that I call peak-realization. Everyone has opened their eyes to what has happened.
There are currently several examples of peak oil today:
Saudi Arabia has told us that they are at max capacity and cannot produce more for us, as have several of our main producers.
Production of oil has been relatively constant since 2005.
One of our other main producers, Mexico, has been in declined production since 2003
Oil discovery, not production, has declined since the 1930s
What is the crisis that everyone speaks of? Well, our economy is already not as strong as people used to think it was. When we had this last “recession” and it subsequently “recovered” it really hasn’t done so well. People are just weary this time around. Confidence is low.
It is not unlikely that at some point the price of gasoline would reach $10/gallon. That is only 3 times what it is currently. In the last 15-20 years it has rose from a buck to almost four per gallon. In the next 15 years, it is extremely likely that the trend could continue. At some point, people have to stop driving so much. They will stop going to as many vacation spots. They will have to work closer to home. People will have to look at all of their energy costs. Comfort will go down.
What is Peak Oil? Myth or Theory? Oil Dependency: Largest Natural & Human Disasters P7: Discovery vs. Production
It is essentially going to be an economic issue, like I already said. What makes it worse is the fact that a couple of our largest population countries are starting to buy mopeds and things. When a million people get mopeds that adds a million gallons a day demand. That’s a huge demand hike just due to the economical method of getting around. Now think about all the people in China or India that are doing just that.
Along with the economic impacts, we will also finally see people take alternative energy seriously, and this will be a big factor in our ability to get through the issues. More research will be done. More technologies and products will come out. We already have some minor research happening because just a few people understand the concept, but it isn’t really going anywhere because everyone isn’t taking it seriously. When they do, it will happen.
But for those of us that are getting ready for it, what can we do to make it easier on us? We can convert our vehicles to bio-diesel, natural gas, and learn to make our own ethanol fuel. We can dampen the blow by running about a 50/50 mix of gasoline and ethanol. We have our home tied to natural gas and the grid for backup, but we can look into alternative energy production at our homes. Start gardens and farm small animals.
What this is doing is #1 reducing our dependence on the oil and #2 reducing our expenses, so we can soak up the price gouge a little easier for what little we do use.
Peak oil is a reality and will have a significant impact on us, but we will get through it with hard work, determination, and ingenuity. This being said, don’t be the person that hears that we will be fine as a people, and think that you will be fine as an individual. If you are one of the unprepared, you are more likely to be one of those hit hardest.
Global Food Shortage/ Crisis, Insecurity, Rising Cost of Food: Largest Natural & Human Disasters P6: People fighting over bread
Well, we move on in the series to the possibility of a global food shortage or crisis. We will see what our food insecurity is. We also touch on the rising cost of food today. This is part 6 of the “Largest Natural & Human Disasters” series.
Up to this point, I hope you guys and gals have realized that all of the different scenarios that I have been writing about in this series are just guesses as to what is possible, not what is going to happen. If you ever find a “survival expert” of which I don’t claim to be one, that says that they know when, where, if, or what will happen when a certain disaster occurs, you probably need to stop listening to that person because they are full of “hot air.”
Global Food Shortage is a possibility for a number of reasons. This includes the fact that the modern agricultural system is unsustainable, the population is growing in other large countries, and the masses are dependent on the few that produce food.
A little bit like the economic problem that we face, a food shortage is a possibility that involves the entire globe. Our entire system is intertwined with everyone else. Everyone has just a few key items that are produced and the rest is imported.
This means that a food shortage can be caused by a political conflict between states, or a regional disaster. If you look at the unsustainable way we use power, petroleum products, and other practices, you would see something that is almost inevitable during a power outage, economic crisis, pandemic, etc. That is the problem with all of these disasters; they all cause a cascading effect of other disasters.
There are a couple different levels of food shortage that is possible:
First is the possibility of some regional disaster that happens, or similar issue that interrupts normal supply to the customers. Due to supply and demand, price goes up. People complain but eat. It is funny that I say this, because it is already happening, but due more to inflationary influences, not shortage.
Next is the possibility of shortage to the point that the people with the money can’t get certain things. If we were to look at their finances, we would say that they are all wealthy people, but either the physical means of getting certain items to them is broken, or they simply are below the minimum bid on that item. They are wealthy, but not quite enough. At this point, how do you think the people in poverty are doing?
In both of these circumstances, the people in poverty have two routes. One group will barely make it, or not make it. They may starve to death even, because it happens even today when we are considered to be in an abundant market. The other is that they will rely more on the government handouts to eat better than those making “a decent living.”
The next scenario is a full-out shortage. Like what happened during the great depression. What do I see happening during this shortage? Without going into environment specifics, because I have already talked about how I think urban versus rural settings will cope with disaster in general, lets look at a few. First, you will start seeing people in charity lines. People that we think otherwise would be able to work and eat, would be getting whatever food they could. Next, we may see squirrels disappear from parks and streets. They may thin out in the forests. Then we could see raccoon and skunks go away in populated areas. Deer would be thinning out. This goes for elk and buffalo as well. Foxes, swine, and even coyotes and wolves could be disappearing a little. We will see gardens showing up all over the place. Some will flourish while many others will fail, because they have poor soil, and the gardeners have little experience because they didn’t believe that the unlikely disaster was even possible. People start getting sick when they can’t take in enough calories. Not only do gardens show up, but so do garden thieves. You will not only have to grow, but also protect your garden. People with theft in mind will show up in this situation.
Global Food Shortage/ Crisis, Insecurity, Rising Cost of Food: Largest Natural & Human Disasters P6: Standing in Soup Lines
On a global scale, I am sure that a few countries can weather the storm for a little while, and other countries will attempt to gain a competitive advantage. “Food Contracts” will be drafted similar to what China unofficially did in the past. China and India will pay near full price, and at least half of that in advance to countries that would normally supply us. We may do the same. There is the possibility for land conquering to occur at this time. Some war is possible or even probable over the food-producing land. Countries will do whatever it takes to gain “food sovereignty” over the other powers.
In the U.S. specifically, we have an abundance of land still, but if we don’t stop killing the soil and microbes and nematodes that provide for plant life, we will come up extremely short-handed. Right now, we basically are good at making wheat, barley, corn, and soybeans. We could feed ourselves to a decent extent for a while, but the problem here is that we are still nutrient deficient, and will be living on GMOs and ammonia pentathlete. As we continue to deplete our soil and wreck our land culture, our ability for agriculture suffers, and we are in the same boat.
What can we all do right now, before this happens? Build a food store first. While doing this start gardening. Gardening will grow our skills and allow us to build up our stores that much more. We can get rid of GMOs in our diets and stop using pesticides and herbicides. As we garden properly, we will learn that we can BUILD our soil, instead of depleting it.
Get some basic security in place to protect our homesteads. Learn how to dehydrate, can, and prepare food. Learn how to store and cure meats.
If you haven’t noticed, not only are many of the disasters intertwined to the point of a domino effect, but many of them have the same ways to be prepared and survive. These all seem to be similar to what I preach on basic preps, so we can be ready for them to some degree as we learn the basics.